Germany and Europe Could Fall Short on Vaccine Supplies

The EU and Berlin have insisted there will be sufficient vaccine available, but delays in signing purchasing contracts mean that the elixir will arrive late and there might not be enough. The EU even declined an option that would have allowed for the purchase of hundreds of millions of extra doses.

In Germany, on the other hand, you see desolate shopping streets, shuttered restaurants and a government that is preparing its population for long, dark days.

The contrast is unmistakable. On the one hand, there is the supposedly incompetent Trump administration, which will provide vaccines to 20 million Americans in the next two to three weeks alone. By the end of March, the plan is for around 100 million Americans to have received the two vaccine injections they need.

On the other hand, there is the supposedly well-prepared Europeans, who continue to have to wait for a vaccine that was developed in Germany. And who still don’t know exactly how much of the vaccine they will be getting in the coming months. 

Scientists estimate that 60 to 70 percent of Germany’s population would need to be vaccinated in order to stop the virus. That would require 100 to 120 million doses because, with one exception, all the vaccines currently available have to be administered in two doses before they deliver immunity.

The EU has ordered a total of 1.3 billion doses from six different manufacturers. Germany is entitled to 18.6 percent of those doses in a distribution mechanism calculated according to its share of the EU population. That amounts to around 250 million doses. But the number is misleading.

Currently, the only deliveries that are certain are those from German-American consortium BioNTech/Pfizer and the American biotech company Moderna.

BioNTech, whose vaccine is to be approved by the EU on Dec. 21, will be able to supply around 45 million doses to Germany in the first half of the year, according to current estimates. Moderna, whose vaccine is due to be authorized for use in Europe on Jan. 6, could supply around 15 million doses. Together, that’s a total of 60 million doses, which is far too little.

Dramatic consequences are brewing for the German government: Without being able to vaccinate on a broad scale, the country won’t be able to stop the virus. Which means that the fall and winter of 2021 could be similar to this year, with high infection rates, contact restrictions and lockdowns.

DER SPIEGEL