Add vitamin D to bread and milk to help fight Covid, urge scientists

Scientists are calling for ministers to add vitamin D to common foods such as bread and milk to help the fight against Covid-19.

Up to half the UK population has a vitamin D deficiency, and government guidance that people should take supplements is not working, according to a group convened by Dr Gareth Davies, a medical physics researcher.

Low levels of vitamin D, which our bodies produce in response to strong sunlight, may lead to a greater risk of catching the coronavirus or suffering more severe effects of infection, according to some studies. Last week, researchers in Spain found that 82% of coronavirus patients out of 216 admitted to hospital had low vitamin D levels. The picture is mixed, however – some research shows that vitamin D levels have little or no effect on Covid-19, flu and other respiratory diseases.

Länk THE OBSERVER

The coronavirus test results that predict an outbreak’s course

 Viral levels in people infected with SARS-CoV-2 in a specific town or city could be used to assess whether the epidemic there has passed its peak.

A common test for SARS-CoV-2 allows doctors to measure an infected person’s ‘viral load’, an indicator of the amount of virus in their body. James Hay at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health in Boston, Massachusetts, and his colleagues, used modelling to show that the viral loads of a population correlate with the rate of viral spread in that population.

Early in an epidemic, the average infected person has been recently exposed to the virus and therefore has a high viral load. Later in the epidemic, the average infected person has had the virus for longer and has a low viral load.

As a result, a snapshot of the viral-load distribution in a random sample of a population can reveal whether cases in that population are on the rise or are declining, the researchers say. They add that their method is less susceptible to biases from changing COVID-testing practices than simply counting daily cases. The findings have not yet been peer reviewed.

Länk J. A. Hay et al. Estimating epidemiologic dynamics from single cross-sectional viral load distributions

Multiple measures boost Covid fight, study finds

Public health restrictions put in place to curb the spread of coronavirus are ranked for their effectiveness in a global study.

Banning public events led to the greatest reduction in virus spread, but combined measures were more effective than any single restriction, the findings suggest.

The Edinburgh-led study, which takes data from 131 countries, provides policy makers with vital insights as they respond to the pandemic’s continuing threat.

Countries across the globe introduced a range of public health measures to control the spread of the virus, including lockdowns, social distancing and school closures.

Länk THE UNIVERSITY OF EDINBURGH

Older Children Spread the Coronavirus Just as Much as Adults, Large Study Finds

In the heated debate over reopening schools, one burning question has been whether and how efficiently children can spread the virusto others.

A large new study from South Korea offers an answer: Children younger than 10 transmit to others much less often than adults do, but the risk is not zero. And those between the ages of 10 and 19 can spread the virus at least as well as adults do.

The findings suggest that as schools reopen, communities will see clusters of infection take root that include children of all ages, several experts cautioned.

“I fear that there has been this sense that kids just won’t get infected or don’t get infected in the same way as adults and that, therefore, they’re almost like a bubbled population,” said Michael Osterholm, an infectious diseases expert at the University of Minnesota.

Länk NYT

CDC: Wear Face Masks on Public Transportation Conveyances and at Transportation Hubs

CDC strongly recommends appropriate masks be worn by all passengers and by all personnel operating the conveyance while on public conveyances (e.g., airplanes, ships, ferries, trains, subways, buses, taxis, ride-shares) and within locations where people board such conveyances (e.g. airports, bus or ferry terminals, train stations, seaports).

Länk CDC

One in 20 people likely to suffer from ‘Long COVID’, but who are they?

 The researchers discovered that older people are much more likely to get long COVID than younger people, although it does occur across all ages. Long COVID affects around 10% of 18-49 year olds who become unwell with COVID-19, rising to 22% of over 70s. Weight also plays a role, with people developing long COVID having a slightly higher average BMI than those with short COVID.

Although men are more likely to be admitted to hospital with COVID-19, women appear to be slightly more likely to suffer from long COVID than men (14.5% compared with 9.5%), but only in the younger age group.

Länk COVID SYMTOM STUDY

Countries that were unable to control their outbreak have tended to suffer the most economic pain

 

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Länk FINANCIAL TIMES

What Fans of ‘Herd Immunity’ Don’t Tell You

And what will be the cost? Even if herd immunity can be achieved with only 40 percent of the population infected or vaccinated, the I.H.M.E. estimates that a total of 800,000 Americans would die. The real death toll needed to reach herd immunity could far exceed one million.

As horrific a price as that is, it could prove much worse if damage to the heart, lungs or other organs of those who recover from the immediate effects of the virus does not heal and instead leads to early deaths or incapacitation. But we won’t know that for years.

Länk NYT

School closures and SARS-CoV-2. Evidence from Sweden's partial school closure

We find that among parents, exposure to open rather than closed schools resulted in a small increase in PCR-confirmed infections [OR 1.15; CI95 1.03-1.27]. Among lower secondary teachers the infection rate doubled relative to upper secondary teachers [OR 2.01; CI95 1.52-2.67]. This spilled over to the partners of lower secondary teachers who had a higher infection rate than their upper secondary counterparts [OR 1.30; CI95 1.00-1.68]. When analyzing COVID-19 diagnoses from healthcare visits and the incidence of severe health outcomes, results are similar for teachers but somewhat weaker for parents and teachers' partners.

Länk  medRxi

Europe’s leaders rated on their coronavirus response

 Sweden. Who would believe this? By any objective measure, the country, long regarded by progressives as the gold standard of governance, dropped the ball on COVID-19. Prime Minister Stefan Löfven effectively handed responsibility for the government response to Sweden’s guru-like chief epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, who opposes masks and argued against closing schools, shops or restaurants. For Tegnell, lockdowns are “using a hammer to kill a fly.” 

Tegnell insists that he was not “definitely not” pursuing a “herd immunity” strategy to build up immunity to the virus in the population, although a batch of emails exchanged with a colleague in Finland that were obtained by a Swedish journalist rather suggest he was. Whatever the plan, it has so far resulted in more than 100,000 infections and a case fatality ratio (the proportion of those infected who die) of 5.8 percent, on par with Sudan’s. The rate in neighboring Norway is just 1.7 percent

Sweden is still a model – at least among adherents of the corona-denying fringe. If Löfven, a Social Democrat, is having second thoughts, he’s not betraying them. For now, he’s sticking to his motto: hålla i och hålla ut (“keep battling on”).

Länk POLITICO

Sweden: why the ‘moral superpower’ dissented over Covid-19

A global crisis breaks with a particular focus on Europe. Nearly all countries act in unison except for Sweden. The solo approach of the Scandinavian country sparks international headlines asking why it stands out from the crowd. It could be a description of Sweden’s now infamous response to coronavirus and how it has avoided the formal lockdowns that the rest of Europe adopted. But it is also an account of what happened during the 2015 migration crisis when it accepted more asylum applications than any other EU country relative to the size of its population. “It’s striking that Sweden has taken a very different path [from others] on two international crises in the past five years,” says Nicholas Aylott, associate professor of political science at Sodertorn University. “It is a case of true Swedish exceptionalism.”

Länk FINANCIAL TIMES

Anders Tegnell hyllar brittisk tanke kring flockimmunitet: ”Dit vi behöver komma”

 LONDON. Storbritannien vill stoppa coronaviruset med hjälp av flockimmunitet.

Att en majoritet av invånarna smittas och skapar ett kollektivt skydd kan även bli aktuellt i Sverige.

– Vi kommer nog inte att få kontroll på det på något annat sätt, säger statsepidemiolog Anders Tegnell. 

Länk AFTONBLADET 17/3

Comparing Associations of State Reopening Strategies with COVID-19 Burden

On average, the number of excess cases per 100,000 residents in states reopening without masks is ten times the number in states reopening with masks after 8 weeks (643.1 cases; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 406.9, 879.2 and 62.9 cases; CI = 12.6, 113.1, respectively). Excess cases after 6 weeks could have been reduced by 90% from 576,371 to 63,062 and excess deaths reduced by 80% from 22,851 to 4858 had states implemented mask mandates prior to reopening. Over 50,000 excess deaths were prevented within 6 weeks in 13 states that implemented mask mandates prior to reopening.

Länk SPRINGER

Scientific consensus on the COVID-19 pandemic: we need to act now

The arrival of a second wave and the realisation of the challenges ahead has led to renewed interest in a so-called herd immunity approach, which suggests allowing a large uncontrolled outbreak in the low-risk population while protecting the vulnerable. Proponents suggest this would lead to the development of infection-acquired population immunity in the low-risk population, which will eventually protect the vulnerable.

This is a dangerous fallacy unsupported by scientific evidence.

Any pandemic management strategy relying upon immunity from natural infections for COVID-19 is flawed. Uncontrolled transmission in younger people risks significant morbidity

3and mortality across the whole population. In addition to the human cost, this would impact the workforce as a whole and overwhelm the ability of health-care systems to provide acute and routine care. Furthermore, there is no evidence for lasting protective immunity to SARS-CoV-2 following natural infection,

4 and the endemic transmission that would be the consequence of waning immunity would present a risk to vulnerable populations for the indefinite future. 

Länk THE LANCET

THE JOHN SNOW MEMORANDUM

 Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has infected more than 35 million people globally, with more than 1 million deaths recorded by the World Health Organization as of Oct 12, 2020. As a second wave of COVID-19 affects Europe, and with winter approaching, we need clear communication about the risks posed by COVID-19 and effective strategies to combat them. Here, we share our view of the current evidence-based consensus on COVID-19.

Länk JOHN SNOW MEMO

The Swedish COVID-19 Response Is a Disaster. It Shouldn’t Be a Model for the Rest of the World

The Swedish COVID-19 experiment of not implementing early and strong measures to safeguard the population has been hotly debated around the world, but at this point we can predict it is almost certain to result in a net failure in terms of death and suffering. As of Oct. 13, Sweden’s per capita death rate is 58.4 per 100,000 people, according to Johns Hopkins University data, 12th highest in the world (not including tiny Andorra and San Marino). But perhaps more striking are the findings of a study published Oct. 12 in the Journal of the American Medical Association, which pointed out that, of the countries the researchers investigated, Sweden and the U.S. essentially make up a category of two: they are the only countries with high overall mortality rates that have failed to rapidly reduce those numbers as the pandemic has progressed.

Länk TIME

Covid-19 Is Creeping Into Europe’s Schools

 There’s a new front in Europe’s fight to contain the coronavirus pandemic: the classroom.

Parents across the continent sent their children back to school a month ago after officials insisted there was scant evidence the virus would spread among children in school. Now schools are reporting thousands of cases in some of Europe’s biggest coronavirus hot spots.

More than a third of the U.K.’s 1,700 coronavirus outbreaks, defined as at least two cases, in the four weeks through Sept. 27 occurred in educational settings. About 35% of the 1,070 outbreaks under investigation in France are in schools or universities. Spain, home to Europe’s biggest epidemic, reported Covid-19 cases in 4.5% of its schools as of Sept 24.

Länk WSJ

Some U.S. doctors flee to New Zealand where the coronavirus outbreak is under control and science is respected

Some U.S.-based doctors and nurses are fleeing the country because the lack of PPE and coordinated U.S. response made them feel unsafe during the coronavirus pandemic. 

• Some have been feeling burned out for years due to the complex U.S. health system. New Zealand, which led with science, has declared victory over Covid-19 yet again and hasn’t reported a positive case in more than a week. 

Länk CNBC

WHO chief says herd immunity approach to pandemic 'unethical'

 The head of the World Health Organization has warned against deliberately allowing coronavirus to spread in the hope of achieving so-called herd immunity, saying the idea is unethical.

“Herd immunity is a concept used for vaccination, in which a population can be protected from a certain virus if a threshold of vaccination is reached,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a virtual press briefing.

Länk GUARDIAN

Face masks: what the data say

The science supports that face coverings are saving lives during the coronavirus pandemic, and yet the debate trundles on. How much evidence is enough?

Länk: NATURE 

Face Masks, Public Policies and Slowing the Spread of COVID-19: Evidence from Canada

Our identification approach exploits variation in the timing of indoor face mask mandates staggered over two months in the 34 public health regions in Ontario, Canada's most populous province. We find that, in the first few weeks after implementation, mask mandates are associated with a reduction of 25 percent in the weekly number of new COVID-19 cases. Additional analysis with province-level data provides corroborating evidence. Counterfactual policy simulations suggest that mandating indoor masks nationwide in early July could have reduced the weekly number of new cases in Canada by 25 to 40 percent in mid-August, which translates into 700 to 1,100 fewer cases per week.

Länk: MEDRXI

Did early focus on hand washing and not masks aid spread of Covid-19?

From the moment coronavirus reached UK shores, public health advice stressed the importance of washing hands and deep-cleaning surfaces to reduce the risk of becoming infected.

The advice was informed by mountains of research into the transmission of other respiratory viruses: it was the best scientists could do with such a new pathogen.

But as the pandemic spread and data rolled in, some scientists began to question whether the focus on hand hygiene was as crucial as it seemed.

Länk: GUARDIAN

CDC: COVID-19 can sometimes be spread by airborne transmission

Some infections can be spread by exposure to virus in small droplets and particles that can linger in the air for minutes to hours. These viruses may be able to infect people who are further than 6 feet away from the person who is infected or after that person has left the space.

This kind of spread is referred to as airborne transmission and is an important way that infections like tuberculosis, measles, and chicken pox are spread.

Länk: CDC

‘It’s been so, so surreal.’ Critics of Sweden’s lax pandemic policies face fierce backlash

THE SWEDISH EXPERIMENT is coming to an end, as its policies fall in line with those of its neighbors. FoHM officials are “quietly changing their approach,” Einhorn says. The country has boosted test rates; at roughly two tests per 1000 inhabitants per day, Sweden’s testing rate is almost on par with Norway’s—although it is only one-quarter of Denmark’s. The recommendation against testing children between ages 6 and 16 was lifted for a second time in September. (FoHM says this is so children with mild symptoms can return to school more quickly if their test is negative.) Children under 6 are still not tested unless severely ill.

Länk: SCIENCE

This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic

It’s not R.

What can we really learn from Sweden, hailed as a great success by some because of its low case counts and deaths as the rest of Europe experiences a second wave, and as a big failure by others because it did not lock down and suffered excessive death rates earlier in the pandemic? Why did widespread predictions of catastrophe in Japan not bear out? The baffling examples go on.

Zeynep Tufekci

September 30, 2020  

Länk: THE ATLANTIC