Island visar oss Tegnells och regeringens felbedömning

En enda resenär som struntade i karantänen. Det var allt som krävdes. Resultatet: 2 700 smittade, flera döda och fem månaders kamp för att bryta smittkedjan.

Det tog Island fem månader att bryta smittkedjan. Flera dödsfall hann ske.

I samband med sportlovet förra året fick socialminister Lena Hallengren (S) försvara sig mot kritiska frågor om varför Sverige inte hade kontroller på flygplatserna när semesterfirarna kom hem från alperna. ”Det är en fråga som är väldigt resurskrävande och det finns risk att man missar personer som inte visar symptom än”, menade hon (SVT 24/2-20). Anders Tegnell sade samma sak. ”Det ger i stället en falsk känsla av trygghet. I stället finns det information till resenärer. Man måste rikta insatserna på ett rimligt sätt. Får man symptom ska man kontakta sjukvården helt enkelt” (SVT 29/2-20).

Länk BULLETIN

When do we have to wear a mask outside? The C.D.C. says less often, and here’s how and why.

 

Everyone can do without a mask when …

• Walking, running, hiking or biking outdoors, alone or with members of the same household.

• Attending a small outdoor gathering with fully vaccinated family and friends.

Fully vaccinated people can do without a mask when …

• Attending a small outdoor gathering with a mixture of fully vaccinated and unvaccinated people.

• Dining outdoors at a restaurant with people from several households.

For these kinds of activities, unvaccinated people should still wear masks and maintain social distance, the C.D.C. says.

Everyone should still wear a mask when …

• Attending a crowded outdoor event, like a parade, sporting event or live performance.

• Doing almost anything indoors that involves contact with people who are not members of your household. Examples include dining indoors at a restaurant; going to the movies, an indoor concert or theatrical performance; attending full-capacity worship services; traveling on an airline flight or riding mass transit; singing in a chorus indoors; taking part in an indoor exercise class; visiting a shopping mall or museum; getting a haircut or manicure; or attending an indoor social gathering.

Länk NYTIMES

MIT researchers say time spent indoors increases risk of Covid at 6 feet or 60 feet in new study challenging social distancing policies

The risk of being exposed to Covid-19 indoors can be as great at 60 feet as it is at 6 feet in a room where the air is mixed — even when wearing a mask, according to a new study by Massachusetts Institute of Technology researchers who challenge social distancing guidelines adopted across the world.

MIT professors Martin Z. Bazant, who teaches chemical engineering and applied mathematics, and John W.M. Bush, who teaches applied mathematics, developed a method of calculating exposure risk to Covid-19 in an indoor setting that factors in a variety of issues that could affect transmission, including the amount of time spent inside, air filtration and circulation, immunization, variant strains, mask use, and even respiratory activity such as breathing, eating, speaking or singing.

We argue there really isn’t much of a benefit to the 6-foot rule, especially when people are wearing masks” since everyone in the room is breathing the same air, Bazant said in an interview. “It really has almost no physical basis because the air a person is breathing while wearing a mask tends to rise and comes down elsewhere in the room so you’re more exposed to the average background than you are to a person at a distance.”

Länk CNBC

The lockdown effect: A counterfactual for Sweden

While most countries imposed a lockdown in response to the first wave of COVID-19 infections, Sweden did not. To quantify the lockdown effect, we approximate a counterfactual lockdown scenario for Sweden through the outcome in a synthetic control unit. We find, first, that a 9-week lockdown in the first half of 2020 would have reduced infections and deaths by about 75% and 38%, respectively. Second, the lockdown effect starts to materialize with a delay of 3–4 weeks only. Third, the actual adjustment of mobility patterns in Sweden suggests there has been substantial voluntary social restraint, although the adjustment was less strong than under the lockdown scenario. Lastly, we find that a lockdown would not have caused much additional output loss.

Länk PLOS ONE

GUARDIAN: Fewer than a quarter with Covid symptoms request test, UK study finds

Fewer than a quarter of people in the UK with Covid symptoms are requesting a test, while only half say they are fully self-isolating after symptoms develop, researchers have found.

People in the UK must self-isolate for 10 days if they have Covid, with the period beginning from the onset of symptoms or, if there are no symptoms, from the day of a positive test result. 

However, data from the Covid-19 rapid survey of adherence to interventions and responses (Corsair) study, conducted by researchers from institutions including King’s College London, Public Health England and University College London and published in the BMJ, suggests compliance is far from universal.

The results reveal that, in the latest round of the survey carried out between 25 and 27 January 2021, 50.8% of participants identified a cough, high temperature or fever, and loss of sense of smell or taste as signs of Covid, while only 22.2% of those who reported having Covid symptoms in the past seven days said they had requested a test.

Only 51.8% of those with recent Covid symptoms, who had not tested negative, said they fully adhered to self-isolation – meaning they did not leave home in the first 10 days after their symptoms began. Yet 71% of respondents said they intended to stick to the self-isolation rules.

GUARDIAN

NYT: Has the Era of Overzealous Cleaning Finally Come to an End?

Americans responded in kind, wiping down groceries, quarantining mail and clearing drugstore shelves of Clorox wipes. Facebook closed two of its offices for a “deep cleaning.” New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority began disinfecting subway cars every night.

But the era of “hygiene theater” may have come to an unofficial end this week, when the C.D.C. updated its surface cleaning guidelines and noted that the risk of contracting the virus from touching a contaminated surface was less than 1 in 10,000.

“People can be affected with the virus that causes Covid-19 through contact with contaminated surfaces and objects,” Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the director of the C.D.C., said at a White House briefing on Monday. “However, evidence has demonstrated that the risk by this route of infection of transmission is actually low.”

Länk New York Times

CDC: When You’ve Been Fully Vaccinated How to Protect Yourself and Others

CDC har nu redovisat riktlinjer för hur amerikaner kan leva efter vaccinationen:

If you’ve been fully vaccinated:

• You can gather indoors with fully vaccinated people without wearing a mask.
• You can gather indoors with unvaccinated people from one other household (for example, visiting with relatives who all live together) without masks, unless any of those people or anyone they live with has an increased risk for severe illness from COVID-19.
• If you’ve been around someone who has COVID-19, you do not need to stay away from others or get tested unless you have symptoms.
• You should still take steps to protect yourself and others in many situations, like wearing a mask, staying at least 6 feet apart from others, and avoiding crowds and poorly ventilated spaces. Take these precautions whenever you are:

In public

• Gathering with unvaccinated people from more than one other household
• Visiting with an unvaccinated person who is at increased risk of severe illness or death from COVID-19 or who lives with a person at increased risk
• You should still avoid medium or large-sized gatherings.
• You should still delay domestic and international travel. If you do travel, you’ll still need to follow CDC requirements and recommendations.
• You should still watch out for symptoms of COVID-19, especially if you’ve been around someone who is sick. If you have symptoms of COVID-19, you should get tested and stay home and away from other.

CDC